OECS Pandemic Outlook: Three Potential Risks
As the world continues to battle the COVID-19 pandemic, it is clear that the Eastern Caribbean will face some economic challenges over the next couple of years. While the downside risks associated with global divergent recoveries are the most obvious threats for the region, other potential risks can easily fly beneath our radar. As an economist, I acknowledge that the low accessibility of vaccines for lesser developed nations can become a severe problem for Caribbean jurisdictions. And yes, tourism-dependent economies, like the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), will recover slowly. Still, other issues will slowly surface in the coming years and, if not addressed, will further hamper the future growth prospects for the region.
Eastern Caribbean States Economic Performance
Pre-existing or Underlying Conditions
In 2020, the OECS members suffered economic contractions ranging from -1 percent to -19 percent and collectively, total stay-over visitors declined by an average of 69 percent (year-on-year). Admittedly, the lacklustre performance of tourism was beyond their control. However, the region will need to address some of its pre-existing conditions, such as widening fiscal deficits, high debt levels, lack of diversification and susceptibility to natural disasters. It is worth noting that some of these problems are interconnected and overcoming them is often easier said than done.
Now, enter the pandemic, where these underlying conditions combined with the social disruptions of the virus have provided the perfect concoction for economic stagnation. Thus, it is imperative that the region remains committed to enforcing prudent fiscal and debt management and resilience-building long after the pandemic. Dominica is an excellent example in pledging to long-term development. Currently, they are on a drive to becoming the world’s first climate-resilient nation. Through its local Citizenship by Investment (CBI) programme and external financing, the Caribbean island found a way to spearhead its Climate Resilience Execution Agency for Dominica (CREAD). This is just one example of how Small Island Developing States (SIDS) can find creative solutions to fund long-term development projects. The Director of Economics at the Caribbean Development Bank, Dr. Justin Ram, provided an extensive review of how Caribbean countries can execute resilience building through a strategy called RISE (Resilience Impact Securities with Equity).
Vaccination Hesitancy
Although some Eastern Caribbean states have done well to minimize the spread of the virus via strict health protocols and lockdowns, anecdotal evidence suggests that there is some slight vaccination hesitancy in some of the islands. In Antigua and Barbuda, the current administration is trying to incentivize citizens to vaccinate upon witnessing a slowdown in vaccine adoption. The British overseas territory, Montserrat, is also seeing some hesitancy. Recently, the government pleaded with citizens to vaccinate, given that 900 vaccines were scheduled to expire by the end of May, 2021.
COVID-19 Analytics
But how can we overcome this problem and ensure that the region achieves herd immunity as quickly as possible? Below, I have highlighted three simple strategies that can help.
1) Educate All
The relevant health sector and government authorities should disseminate accurate information about vaccines to all communities. This entails reaching out to rural districts via town hall meetings to get the message across to elderly and illiterate populations. In some OECS countries, newspapers are printed weekly. Also, it is not safe to assume that everyone is literate or has access to a good broadband connection. Hence, in specific locations, door-to-door communication may be required.
2) Move Swiftly
With our hyperactive social media usage, it just takes one false story to undo all the hard work of properly educating the public. This is why all relevant information about the vaccine must be communicated promptly.
3) Incentivize Positively
Sometimes we are tempted to persuade with the use of negative language like, for example, “Vaccination can significantly lower your chances of dying from COVID-19.” Now, while this may be an accurate statement, refraining from words like dying and using more positive language may lead to more compliance. For example, promising those who vaccinate a swifter return to normal life offers a positive incentive.
Mentally Exhausted Workforce
Economic growth in the OECS is often linked to solid tourism activity. In 2021 and beyond, a rebound in tourism will hinge on robust recoveries in the region’s leading tourism source markets, like the US, UK and the Caribbean. Nevertheless, I firmly believe that the health of an economy is related to the health of its citizens and thus, we cannot ignore the deep psychological impacts the pandemic will have on human capital. Currently, people are operating primarily in a state of survival and are not cognizant of the negative mental impacts of social distancing, self-isolation and other pandemic-related disruptions. In fact, the world already has a name for this threat. Post Pandemic Stress Disorder (PPSD) is what they are calling it and this could be the next hurdle to clear once the pandemic is over.
PPSD and other post-pandemic mental disorders can potentially erode workforce productivity and overall growth. While I claim to be no medical practitioner, high stress can lower oxytocin levels in the body and this deficiency has been linked to low creativity. Now some people are under the impression that creativity is only needed by workers in arts and crafts, but honestly, we need creativity in every field. From creating slides for a presentation to dealing with complaints from customers, we need creativity.
These are just a few methods that we can use to help combat post-pandemic mental health disorders:
1) 4F (Fight, Flight, Freeze and Fawn) Trauma Responses
2) ALGEE Mental Health First Aid
Assess risk
Listen non-judgementally
Give reassurance and information
Encourage appropriate professional help
Encourage self-help and other support strategies
3) Compassionate Curiosity Framework
Of course, there are many other problems that can stymie future growth for the region. But if we focus on these three for now, the OECS can end this year on a high note and hopefully, lay the necessary foundation for an economic recovery in 2022.
