Are the Patriots Super Bowl-Bound?

Belichick…a Man on a Mission.

Following a hard-fought loss against the Dallas Cowboys, the New England Patriots fell to 2–4 and at that point it seemed like Belichick and crew were in for a tumultuous ride for the rest of the season. But, oh how I was wrong. What proceeded afterwards was nothing short of sublime, as the Patriots put on an absolute clinic to go unbeaten for six straight games. Unquestionably, they have caught fire heading into this week’s clash against their division rival, the Bills. Many experts are giving them the odds to win this crucial game, as well the AFC East division and that may come as little surprise given their current run of form.

However, based on what has transpired over the last six weeks, New England might be more than just a division or playoff contender. Like a freight train slowly gathering momentum, if left unchecked, this team may have the potential to go all the way.

Now for some, this may seem a bit too early for such bold predictions. Besides, the Chiefs have hit a rich vein of form themselves on the heels of a decent 4 game winning run. Also, other AFC playoff contenders like Baltimore, Tennessee and Buffalo should not to be taken lightly. Nevertheless, the numbers never lie and what do they tell us? Right now, New England is a dangerous team that nobody wants to lock horns with.

During the first six games of the 2021 season, they won only 2, and while this may seem discouraging, on closer introspection, their total score differential was just -2 (Chart 1). In essence, their woeful 2–4 start to the season was a bit misleading and in fact, they were still competitive throughout that early rough patch. Turning our attention to their last 6 games however, we see a different picture. With a score differential of +148, the Patriots outscored their opponents 211 to 63 on an immaculate 6–0 run to go top of the AFC East. Of course, the 45–7 drubbing on Cleveland and the 25–0 shutout of the Falcons both played a role in this impressive turnaround, but what was the main underlying reason for this major shift?

Well it all came down to this formula:

1) Taking care of the football

2) Staying true to the run game and

3) Making defensive plays

Throughout the historical thrills and spills of the NFL, this formula has been debatably dubbed as the sine qua non for most Super Bowl championship winning teams.

In the 2–4 start, the Patriots turned the ball over for a total of 11 times (Chart 2). Regardless, they found a way to minimize this to just 4 in their last half dozen games. New England also ran the ball more with an average rushing attempts per game of 33 compared to 23 (Chart 2). Just to be thorough, these two strategies are huge contributors for any team seeking to make a successful playoff run, as it helps control the clock. And, as we all know, a greater time of possession for the offense always translates into the following:

1) More opportunities to hurt your opponent and

2) Fewer opportunities for the opponent to hurt you

One other aspect that should be taken into consideration was the substantial faith placed in the hands of rookie QB, Mac Jones. In the first six games, he wasn’t particularly bad, yet, for the Patriots franchise, effort only matters when it culminates in a ‘W’, as in Win. To remedy this problem with the Win column, the Patriots offensive coaching staff devised the ideal scheme to suit Mac’s current ability. Quick releases, 3-step drops and more nickel and dime plays were the solutions and the data was concomitant with these offensive adjustments. In the pocket, Mac was pressured and hurried fewer times (Chart 3) during their perfect run and the higher number of yards after receptions was the perfect complement for this style of play.

Nonetheless, a Super Bowl calibre team cannot stand alone on its offensive prowess. The defense needs to turn up to the party and that’s exactly what Matt Judon and gang did. You’ve always heard it, “…the defense needs to make plays to win games” and the Patriots doubled the amount of turnovers forced from 8 to 17 (Chart 4). Getting the opposing offense off the field as quickly as possible is also crucial and they did just that, improving their average Three and Outs per game to 3.17 from 2.67. The increase in average sacks and forced punts was also a testament to their refinement on the defensive side of the ball.

Now, statistics definitely tell us a story, but there are other immeasurable insights. For example, what does the empirical evidence tell us about this team’s hot run of form. Well… in my honest opinion, the Patriots currently look like the team nobody wants to meet in the playoffs, especially with Belichick at the coaching helm. Very few will admit it, but there is a good chance that Belichick has had it up to here with the mainstream media, as they question his coaching ability. Moreover, to add fuel to the fire, the media and other reputable sports critics often laud TB12 as the vital component for the Patriots’ six Super Bowl wins.

It doesn’t matter what people say at the press conferences. Bill can praise Tom all he wants and yes, I am sure he honestly respects Brady. But beyond that, I suspect that Tom ’s Super Bowl success with the Bucs last year, combined with the Patriots loss to Brady’s Buccaneers in week 4 of this season, was enough to leave a bad taste in Belichick’s mouth.

To the casual observer, he may seem innocuous or even apathetic at times. Such is the nature of some of the most strong-willed, I suppose. Often people like this would efficiently go about their business with not a care in the world, as if they wore an invisible armour of some sort. An armour that protects them from the societal pressures or public criticisms. So never mind his bone-dry responses to the media. This guy is still focused…. this man still wants to win and most importantly… Bill is hell-bent on proving that he can win without the golden boy, Tom Brady.